Queeg Can’t Question Assumptions
Another poll falling into the bad-news-for-Barack category. Queeg:
One of the more striking numbers from the poll is the younger voter demographic. Obama has had a large lead in most polling in voters under 35, and in Minnesota, the college-age and young adult vote is a formidable weapon. Now, though, McCain and Obama evenly split that vote, which bodes ill for Obama in a general election.
First off, the data analysis that went into this report must be wrong. In no way will Obama and McCain split the 35-and-under vote. Impossible, really. My guess (without having any other references) is that corrections for party affiliation were to strong for Republicans and independents. Seems that whenever a poll claims they based numbers on 45% Dems, 28% Criminals, and 17% independents, the wingnuts go on a rampage.
It’s still worthwhile to look at poll numbers even if the absolute percentages aren’t accurate. They can still give an idea of where support is shifting. Obama, then, isn’t necessarily losing ground but opinion is shifting towards McCain slightly, due mostly to his Beard.
Obama has an opportunity now to enter the debates as an apparent underdog. (And Americans love an underdog!) In this situation, the viewers (and there will be a lot of them) go in with high expectations for the Favorite (McCain) and low expectations for Obama. Rope-a-Dope, anyone?
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